Ancient farmers and herders studied plants, animals, and the heavens to make predictions. Those traditional methods actually have a scientific basis- animals are good at sensing storms, plants are good indicators of seasonal patterns, and the way a star looks in the sky can tell you a lot about atmospheric conditions.
People still use those methods today, but they’re not very reliable. But even modern meteorology has a tough time. Weather and seasonal forecasting involves overlapping natural systems in time. Anywhere along the way, a single variable can change the weather dramatically. Like a butterfly flapping its wings in the wind or so they say. Chaos theory was actually developed by a meteorologist. So it’s no surprise that weather forecasts aren’t very good at predicting the weather more than three days in advance.
Still three days notice or even a rough idea can save lives. Weather forecasters saw Cyclone Nargis heading towards Burma several days in advance. But the people in the Irrawaddy Delta either never heard the news or never appreciated the danger heading their way.
Much of the developing world simply can’t turn on CNN or the BBC and hear a weather report. And climate change is making access to weather information more important than ever. Scientists say more severe storms, droughts, and unpredictable seasons are in the forecast.
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